Is Phoenix Running out of Water? What Arizona Home Shoppers should know about the future of Scottsdale and Phoenix.

 Is Phoenix Running Out of Water? What Arizona Home Buyers Should Know About Drought, Water Rights and the Valley’s Future

If you are considering moving to Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, Carefree or another community in the Valley, you have probably heard concerns about Arizona’s water supply. Buyers relocating from California, the Pacific Northwest, Midwest and East Coast frequently ask me some version of the same question: Is Phoenix going to run out of water? With continuing drought conditions, historically low Colorado River reservoirs and headlines about future water cuts, it is a reasonable question for anyone considering purchasing a primary residence, luxury home or second home in Arizona.

The answer deserves more than a headline. Arizona faces real long-term water challenges, particularly involving the Colorado River. At the same time, Phoenix has spent decades preparing for drought by diversifying its water sources, storing water underground, investing in major infrastructure, recycling wastewater and steadily reducing the amount of water residents use per person. Phoenix’s population has grown dramatically, yet the City reports that it uses approximately the same total volume of water today as it did 30 years ago, while residential water use per person has fallen substantially. That is an important part of the Arizona water story that often gets overlooked.

For potential home buyers, none of this means water should be ignored. Water should absolutely be part of the conversation when purchasing Arizona real estate, particularly when considering acreage, horse properties, private wells or homes outside established municipal water systems. However, buyers should understand the difference between the challenges facing the Colorado River Basin and the water resources available to a specific Arizona city, community or property. Those issues are connected, but they are not interchangeable.

Is Scottsdale running out of water? What to know in 2026. 

Where Does Phoenix Get Its Water?

One of the biggest misconceptions about Phoenix is that the city gets nearly all its water from the Colorado River. Phoenix actually has a diversified water portfolio. According to the City of Phoenix, approximately 58% of its current drinking-water supply comes from the Salt and Verde rivers, about 40% comes from the Colorado River through the Central Arizona Project, and approximately 2% comes from groundwater.

This diversification is extremely important. Phoenix is not dependent on one reservoir or one river system. The Salt and Verde rivers, Colorado River, groundwater wells, underground water storage and reclaimed water all contribute to the city’s broader water strategy. Phoenix also reports that approximately 98% of its current water supply comes from surface water, allowing groundwater to be used sparingly and preserved as an important supplemental resource.

The Salt and Verde rivers are particularly important because Phoenix holds high-priority rights to these surface-water supplies. Over many decades, the city has also acquired additional water rights and invested in the infrastructure needed to move and treat water throughout a large metropolitan service area.

How Serious Is the Colorado River Drought?

The Colorado River situation is serious, and I don’t think prospective Arizona home buyers benefit from pretending otherwise. Lake Mead and Lake Powell remain far below their historic capacity, and 2026 has been an especially difficult water year for the Colorado River Basin.

According to the Arizona Department of Water Resources, the overall Colorado River system was approximately 33% full as of July 5, 2026, compared with 40% at the same time a year earlier. Lake Powell was approximately 24% full, while Lake Mead was approximately 28% full. By August 30, Arizona’s Colorado River dashboard showed Lake Powell at approximately 22% and Lake Mead at approximately 26% of capacity.

The 2026 water year also brought extremely poor snowpack and runoff. The Arizona Department of Water Resources reported record-low snowpack conditions comparable to some of the driest years on record. Because much of the Colorado River system ultimately depends on mountain snowpack and runoff, those conditions matter significantly.

These are not numbers Arizona can dismiss. Colorado River users will need to adapt to a future in which less water may be available from the river. The important question for a home buyer, however, is not simply whether the Colorado River is under stress. It is what Phoenix and other Valley communities have done to prepare for that reality.

Phoenix Has Been Preparing for Drought for Decades

Phoenix’s water planning did not begin when Lake Mead started appearing in national headlines. The City adopted its Drought Management Plan in 1990 and has spent decades building a more resilient water system. That planning includes conservation, underground water storage, infrastructure improvements, groundwater recovery and acquiring or protecting additional water resources.

In 2026, Phoenix officials reiterated that residents can continue to expect reliable water service even as the city prepares for potential reductions in Colorado River allocations. Preparation does not mean the challenge has disappeared. It means the city has spent decades building alternatives so that a reduction from one water source does not automatically become a shortage at someone’s kitchen faucet.

That distinction is important for people considering a move to the Valley. A desert city cannot control how much snow falls in Colorado, but it can control how efficiently it uses water, how much water it stores, how diversified its supplies are and how much infrastructure it builds to move water where it is needed.

Phoenix Has Approximately 700,000 Acre-Feet of Water Stored Underground

One of the strongest examples of long-term planning is Phoenix’s underground water storage. The City reports that it has stored approximately 700,000 acre-feet of water underground in the Phoenix and Tucson areas. That stored water serves as an important reserve that can be accessed during periods when renewable surface-water supplies are reduced.

Phoenix currently has approximately 20 operational groundwater wells and expects to bring roughly 10 additional wells online over the next several years. The objective is not to abandon surface water and begin pumping groundwater without limits. In fact, groundwater represents only a small percentage of Phoenix’s current supply. Instead, groundwater and stored water provide additional flexibility during drought and shortage conditions.

Arizona also has a broader water-banking system. The Arizona Water Banking Authority has stored more than 2 million acre-feet of Colorado River water for the benefit of municipal and industrial Central Arizona Project users. These stored supplies represent another layer of drought preparation that is rarely mentioned in a simple headline about Lake Mead.

Phoenix Residents Are Using Much Less Water Per Person

Perhaps the most encouraging statistic for prospective Arizona home buyers is the dramatic decline in Phoenix residential water consumption per person. According to Phoenix Water Services, residential use was approximately 139 gallons per person per day in 1990, when the city’s population was just under one million. By 2000, usage was approximately 137 gallons per person per day. It declined to 108 gallons in 2010, 102 gallons in 2020 and only 92 gallons per person per day in 2023.

That means residential water use per person fell by approximately 34% between 1990 and 2023, while Phoenix’s population grew from roughly 997,000 to more than 1.68 million people. This is a remarkable change because it demonstrates that population growth does not automatically translate into equivalent growth in water demand.

Phoenix also reports that total city water consumption today is approximately the same as it was 30 years ago, despite having a much larger population. Homes and businesses have become more water-efficient, landscaping has changed, irrigation technology has improved and conservation has become a much more important part of living in the Sonoran Desert.

For buyers relocating from greener parts of the country, this is an important concept. Phoenix is not trying to recreate a Midwestern or East Coast landscape in the desert. Increasingly, the Valley is embracing landscaping and development that make sense for the climate in which we live.

Phoenix Recycles Approximately 90% of Its Wastewater

Water conservation is only one part of the strategy. Phoenix also reports that approximately 90% of its wastewater is recycled for beneficial uses. Recycled water can be used for purposes including golf courses, parks, non-edible agricultural crops, groundwater recharge, the Tres Rios Wetlands and cooling at the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station.

This matters because wastewater is a relatively dependable resource. As a community grows, more wastewater is produced. Rather than treating that water as something to simply dispose of, Phoenix increasingly views it as part of the long-term water portfolio.

Advanced water purification could make reuse even more important in the future. Technology that allows highly treated wastewater to undergo additional purification and eventually return to the potable water system is becoming an important strategy across the arid Southwest. The concept is straightforward: in a desert, water becomes much more valuable when it can be safely used more than once.

Major Infrastructure Investments Are Making Phoenix More Resilient

Conservation alone cannot solve every water challenge. Phoenix also needs infrastructure capable of moving different water supplies to different parts of the city. This has been a major focus of recent investment.

One significant example is Phoenix’s drought pipeline. The project gives the city greater flexibility to move Salt and Verde river water into portions of North Phoenix that historically depended more heavily on Colorado River supplies. That kind of infrastructure becomes increasingly important if future Colorado River deliveries are reduced.

Phoenix Water Services itself is enormous. The department serves more than 1.7 million water customers and operates thousands of miles of water and wastewater lines, treatment plants, wells, reservoirs and pump stations across a service area covering roughly 540 square miles. The scale of that system is worth remembering when comparing Phoenix with smaller or more remote Arizona water providers.

For a home buyer, this highlights why it is important to look beyond the phrase “Arizona water.” Water security is highly dependent on the municipality, provider, infrastructure and property involved.

Arizona’s 100-Year Water Planning Matters to Home Buyers

Arizona has another important water-management tool that relocating buyers should understand: the Assured Water Supply Program. Under Arizona’s groundwater-management framework, certain developments within designated Active Management Areas must demonstrate an assured water supply that can meet regulatory requirements over a 100-year period.

Phoenix states that its long-term goal is to maintain a sustainable and reliable 100-year water supply. The city has also demonstrated legal and physical access to substantial groundwater resources over a 100-year planning period as part of its overall water strategy.

A 100-year planning framework does not mean Arizona possesses unlimited water or that drought can be ignored. It means water availability is incorporated into long-term development planning rather than treated solely as a short-term issue.

For buyers looking at new construction, large developments or communities farther from established city infrastructure, understanding the water provider and the development’s water assurances is an important part of due diligence.

Is water an issue in Az?

Desert Landscaping Is Becoming an Important Part of Arizona Homeownership

One of the most visible changes in Phoenix and Scottsdale is landscaping. Decades ago, large lawns and high-water landscaping were much more common. Today, many of the Valley’s most attractive luxury properties embrace the natural Sonoran Desert with native trees, desert-adapted plants, drip irrigation, shaded outdoor living areas and carefully designed xeriscaping.

For homeowners, that approach has practical advantages. Lower-water landscaping can reduce water consumption, irrigation maintenance and monthly operating costs. Smart irrigation controllers can adjust watering based on weather and seasonal conditions, while modern drip systems can deliver water directly where plants need it.

This does not mean giving up attractive outdoor living. Some of Scottsdale’s most beautiful properties combine pools, patios, outdoor kitchens, mature desert trees, flowering plants and mountain views without maintaining acres of thirsty lawn. In many cases, desert-sensitive landscaping looks more appropriate because it complements the environment buyers came to Arizona to enjoy.

What Do Phoenix Water Issues Mean for Scottsdale Home Buyers?

For someone purchasing a home in Scottsdale, North Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek or Carefree, it is important not to assume every property has the same water situation. A luxury home connected to an established municipal water system is fundamentally different from an acreage property served by a private well or smaller water company.

This becomes especially important in the areas where I work with buyers looking for horse properties, larger lots and custom estates. A property may have a Scottsdale, Cave Creek or Carefree mailing address while its actual water arrangement differs significantly from another home only a few miles away.

That is why I encourage buyers to identify the actual water provider during the due-diligence process. If the property has a private or shared well, buyers should understand the well depth, production, water quality, equipment, shared-well agreements and any other relevant conditions. When purchasing vacant land, water availability should be investigated before assuming a future home can be developed as planned.

Second-Home Buyers Should Think About Water Differently

Water considerations can also be especially relevant for second-home buyers. If you will be away from the Valley for several months during the summer, a property’s landscaping, irrigation system, pool equipment and leak-detection technology become important ownership considerations.

A lock-and-leave home with low-water landscaping and smart irrigation can be easier to manage remotely than a large estate with extensive grass, mature landscaping and multiple irrigation zones. Automatic water shutoff systems, smart leak detectors, remote pool monitoring and Wi-Fi-connected irrigation controllers can all make second-home ownership easier.

This is another reason I tell relocating buyers to evaluate the whole property, not simply the house. A beautiful home can come with very different operating requirements depending on the lot, pool, landscaping and community.

Should Arizona’s Water Situation Stop You From Buying a Home?

I believe water should be taken seriously, but I do not believe buyers benefit from either extreme. Saying “Arizona has no water problem” ignores legitimate challenges. Saying “Phoenix is running out of water” ignores decades of conservation, infrastructure investment, diversified water rights, underground storage and long-term planning.

The better approach is to understand the specific facts. The Colorado River is under significant stress and Arizona is likely to have less Colorado River water available in the future. At the same time, only about 40% of Phoenix’s current drinking-water supply comes from the Colorado River. The majority comes from the Salt and Verde rivers, and Phoenix has additional groundwater, stored supplies and infrastructure available as part of its drought strategy.

Phoenix has also demonstrated that conservation can make an enormous difference. Residential water consumption per person has fallen by roughly one-third since 1990, even as the city’s population increased dramatically. That is not a theoretical plan for the future; it is something Phoenix has already accomplished.

Phoenix’s Water Story Is Really a Story About Adaptation

Arizona will always be a desert. Even if the Colorado River experienced several extremely wet years, water conservation would still matter because this is an arid environment. The long-term solution is not waiting for the drought to disappear. It is learning to use available water more efficiently while continuing to develop resilient supplies and infrastructure.

Phoenix has been doing that for decades. The city has diversified its water sources, stored hundreds of thousands of acre-feet underground, reduced per-person consumption, recycled wastewater, expanded groundwater recovery and invested heavily in infrastructure. Future generations will undoubtedly need to continue that work.

For people thinking about relocating to Arizona, I believe that context is important. Water is a legitimate consideration when purchasing a home here, but the discussion should be based on actual water sources, rights, infrastructure and conservation—not simply dramatic headlines.

What This Means If You Are Moving to the Phoenix Valley

If you are considering relocating to Phoenix, Scottsdale, North Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek or Carefree, ask questions about water. Find out who provides water to the property. Look at the landscaping and irrigation. Understand whether the home is on municipal water, a private system or a well. If you are purchasing acreage or vacant land, make water part of your investigation before you commit to the property.

At the same time, understand the broader story. Phoenix is one of the largest cities in the country operating in a desert environment, and it has spent decades developing ways to use water more efficiently. The city is serving a substantially larger population while using roughly the same overall volume of water as 30 years ago, and residential use per person has declined dramatically.

As a Realtor, I believe buyers deserve the complete picture. My job is not to tell someone there is nothing to worry about, and it is not to scare someone away from Arizona. It is to help buyers understand the property, community and local issues so they can make an informed decision.

After more than 25 years working in Arizona real estate, I have watched Scottsdale and the Valley grow and change considerably. Water will remain an important part of Arizona’s future, and informed buyers will be better positioned to understand what that means for the home and community they choose.

J. Todd Simpson, Luxury Realtor Scottsdale Az.
Russ Lyon Sotheby’s Realty.

Frequently Asked Questions About Phoenix Water and Arizona Real Estate

1. Is Phoenix running out of water?

Phoenix faces real long-term water challenges, particularly because the Colorado River is under significant stress, but saying Phoenix is simply “running out of water” does not accurately describe the city’s water portfolio. Approximately 58% of Phoenix’s current drinking-water supply comes from the Salt and Verde rivers, about 40% comes from the Colorado River and roughly 2% comes from groundwater. Phoenix also has stored water, groundwater recovery capacity, reclaimed water and significant infrastructure designed to provide additional resilience during shortages.

2. Where does Phoenix get most of its drinking water?

The majority of Phoenix’s drinking water currently comes from the Salt and Verde rivers. Approximately 58% comes from those river systems, while about 40% comes from the Colorado River through the Central Arizona Project and approximately 2% comes from groundwater. Because Phoenix has multiple sources, a reduction in Colorado River supplies does not mean the city loses its entire water supply.

3. How much has Phoenix reduced residential water consumption?

Phoenix residential water use declined from approximately 139 gallons per person per day in 1990 to 92 gallons per person per day in 2023, a reduction of roughly 34%. During that same period, Phoenix’s population grew from approximately 997,000 to more than 1.68 million. The City also reports that total water use today is approximately the same as it was 30 years ago despite substantial population growth.

4. How much water does Phoenix have stored underground?

The City of Phoenix reports having approximately 700,000 acre-feet of water stored underground in the Phoenix and Tucson areas. Phoenix can use stored supplies and groundwater recovery wells as part of its response to reduced surface-water availability. The broader Arizona Water Banking Authority has also stored more than 2 million acre-feet of Colorado River water for the benefit of municipal and industrial Central Arizona Project users.

5. Does Phoenix recycle its wastewater?

Yes. Phoenix reports that approximately 90% of its wastewater is recycled for beneficial uses, including irrigation, groundwater recharge, environmental purposes and cooling at the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station. Recycled and purified water are expected to become increasingly important components of long-term water planning in Phoenix and throughout the Southwest.

6. Should I be concerned about water when buying a home in Scottsdale?

Water should be part of your due diligence, but the answer depends on the individual property. Buyers should determine the actual water provider and whether the home uses municipal water, a private water company or a private or shared well. This becomes especially important for acreage, horse properties, vacant land and homes outside established municipal service areas in North Scottsdale, Cave Creek and Carefree.

7. Does Arizona require a 100-year water supply for new development?

Arizona’s Assured Water Supply Program applies within designated Active Management Areas and requires qualifying subdivisions to demonstrate a water supply that meets regulatory requirements over a 100-year period. The rules are more nuanced than simply saying every Arizona property has a guaranteed 100-year supply, so buyers considering new developments or properties outside established municipal systems should investigate the specific water provider and development.

8. Is it still reasonable to buy a home or second home in the Phoenix and Scottsdale area?

Water is one of several long-term factors buyers should consider when purchasing Arizona real estate, but it should be evaluated using the specific property’s circumstances rather than broad assumptions about the entire state. Phoenix has diversified water sources, substantial underground storage, declining per-person consumption, extensive wastewater reuse and major infrastructure investments. Buyers considering Scottsdale, North Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek or Carefree should understand the property’s water provider, landscaping, irrigation, pool and overall water requirements as part of a complete real estate evaluation.

Buying a Home in Scottsdale or the Phoenix Valley

If you are considering moving to Arizona, purchasing a second home or exploring luxury real estate in Scottsdale, North Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek or Carefree, I believe water should be one part of a larger, informed conversation about where and what you buy.

Arizona’s water future deserves facts rather than fear or dismissal. Understanding where our water comes from, how Phoenix has reduced consumption, what the city is doing to prepare for Colorado River shortages and how an individual property receives its water gives buyers a much clearer picture of the Valley’s future.

J. Todd Simpson / Top Scottsdale Luxury Agent
Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty
Scottsdale Luxury Real Estate & Arizona Relocation
Scottsdale | North Scottsdale | Paradise Valley | Cave Creek | Carefree
(480) 465-1504